Across the Soda Ash Industry: China’s Soda Ash Surge Is Reaching Southwest Wyoming
August 27, 2026
A proposed delay at Pacific Soda’s Dry Creek project is putting new attention on a much larger issue facing the industry: global soda ash oversupply, falling prices and millions of tons of new production capacity from China.
When we started our Across the Soda Ash Industry series, the goal was to look beyond any one company or operation and help members understand the larger forces shaping the industry.
Sometimes those developments happen thousands of miles away.
This time, they are showing up much closer to home.
Pacific Soda is seeking additional time to begin construction of its Dry Creek Trona Project in Sweetwater County. Permitting delays are part of the reason, but the company also specifically pointed to the downturn in the global soda ash market and new natural soda ash production from China.
That raises an important question for Wyoming soda ash workers:
Is Chinese production really having that much of an effect on the global soda ash market?
Based on publicly available information from the U.S. Geological Survey, federal regulators, SEC filings and soda ash producers themselves, there is strong evidence that it is.
China has added millions of tons of new natural soda ash capacity. Global supply has grown faster than demand. Prices have weakened. Wyoming producers are operating in that same market, and the effects can now be seen in financial results and investment decisions.
That does not mean Wyoming’s existing soda ash operations are facing an immediate crisis.
It does mean the market deserves our attention.
An Update on Pacific Soda and Dry Creek
Members who have followed this series may remember that we previously discussed Pacific Soda’s proposed Dry Creek Trona Project.
The project would be a major new addition to Wyoming’s trona industry.
In May 2025, the Bureau of Land Management approved the project, authorizing Pacific Soda to construct mine well fields, processing facilities, storage ponds, transportation facilities, pipelines and powerlines needed to access trona deposits approximately 2,300 feet underground.
The scale is significant.
According to the BLM, Dry Creek is expected to employ as many as 2,000 workers during construction and approximately 300 full-time workers during operation.
Pacific Soda estimates the project area contains approximately 117 million tons of recoverable trona and could ultimately produce approximately 6 million metric tons of marketable soda ash annually, along with more than 440,000 metric tons of baking soda. (blm.gov)
The project reached another milestone in July 2026 when the BLM issued right-of-way grant offers for infrastructure supporting the mine.
Those grants do not mean full construction can immediately begin. The BLM says the notice to proceed remains contingent on approval of the mine permit by the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality’s Land Quality Division and acceptance of the required reclamation bond. (blm.gov)
Now there is another development.
Pacific Soda has requested that the required construction commencement date under its Wyoming Industrial Siting permit be moved back.
The original date was December 31, 2026.
The requested new date is December 31, 2027.
And the reason given deserves attention.
Pacific Soda Points Directly to China
According to the public notice associated with Pacific Soda’s amendment request, the company cited continued delays obtaining its large mine permit and federal right-of-way authorizations.
But it cited something else too.
The notice says there is an ongoing downturn in the global soda ash market caused by an influx of new natural soda ash production from China. (politicalemails.org)
That is an important statement.
Still, one company’s explanation by itself would not be enough for us to conclude that China is responsible for a broader industry problem.
So we looked further.
And there is substantial independent evidence supporting the underlying market concern.
What the U.S. Government Says About the Market
One of the strongest sources is the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2026 Mineral Commodity Summary for soda ash.
The USGS estimates that China produced approximately 38 million metric tons of soda ash in 2025.
The United States produced approximately 12 million metric tons.
Turkey produced approximately 6 million metric tons of natural soda ash.
Together, China, the United States and Turkey accounted for approximately 80% of global soda ash production. (pubs.usgs.gov)
But China’s overall production isn’t the most important part of the story.
The change in Chinese production capacity is.
According to the USGS, China expanded natural soda ash production in Inner Mongolia beginning in mid-2023, adding approximately 5 million metric tons of annual capacity.
For perspective, that single addition is equal to more than 40% of the United States’ estimated 2025 soda ash production.
And the USGS directly connects that expansion to current market conditions.
Its 2026 report says global soda ash prices declined during 2025 because of oversupply and weak demand from major consuming industries and identifies China’s expansion of natural soda ash production as a major driver of that imbalance. (pubs.usgs.gov)
In other words, Pacific Soda isn’t alone in pointing toward China.
The federal government’s own mineral analysts are describing the same basic problem.
Why Natural Soda Ash From China Matters
There is another important distinction here.
China has long been the world’s largest soda ash producer, but much of its production historically has been synthetic.
Wyoming soda ash is different.
Southwest Wyoming sits above an enormous naturally occurring trona deposit. That trona is mined and processed into soda ash.
China’s expansion in Inner Mongolia matters because it added roughly 5 million metric tons per year of natural soda ash capacity, according to USGS. (pubs.usgs.gov)
That creates additional competition in a part of the industry where Wyoming has historically held a major advantage.
It doesn’t eliminate Wyoming’s advantages.
The USGS still identifies the Green River Basin as containing the world’s largest known trona deposit.
The agency estimates that approximately 47 billion tons of soda ash resources could potentially be recovered from the enormous trona resources beneath southwest Wyoming. (pubs.usgs.gov)
The resource isn’t the problem.
The immediate challenge is the balance between how much soda ash the world can produce and how much customers are currently willing to buy.
Another Wyoming Producer Is Feeling the Pressure
We don’t have to rely only on Pacific Soda or USGS to see the effects.
Natural Resource Partners owns a 49% non-controlling interest in Sisecam Wyoming, another major Green River Basin soda ash producer.
Because Natural Resource Partners is publicly traded, it files financial information with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Its latest filings provide a particularly clear description of current soda ash conditions.
In reporting second-quarter 2026 results, NRP said the global soda ash market remained weak and that international soda ash prices were below the production costs of many producers.
NRP attributed those conditions to increased natural soda ash supply from China combined with sluggish demand for flat glass, which it connected to slowing commercial and residential construction globally. (sec.gov)
The financial impact was significant.
NRP reported that its soda ash segment’s second-quarter 2026 net income decreased by $7.5 million compared with the same quarter in 2025, primarily because of lower sales prices.
NRP also reported receiving no distribution from Sisecam Wyoming during the first half of 2026, compared with distributions during the same period of 2025. (sec.gov)
Earlier this year, NRP went even further.
In its first-quarter reporting, the company described the soda ash market as significantly oversupplied because of natural soda ash supply coming from China combined with weak flat-glass demand.
NRP said it did not see a near-term market correction and expected restoring balance to require increased demand, reductions in production capacity elsewhere, or some combination of the two. (sec.gov)
That gives us another independent data point.
Pacific Soda is delaying a major investment.
NRP is reporting weaker results from its interest in an existing Wyoming producer.
USGS is documenting global oversupply and Chinese expansion.
Different sources are describing different pieces of the same market.
WE Soda Is Seeing Weakness Too
There is another source that matters directly to southwest Wyoming workers.
On August 26, WE Soda released its results for the second quarter and first half of 2026.
The company described trading conditions during the first half as challenging and said weaker pricing in parts of Asia and Europe contributed to lower financial performance.
For WE Soda’s consolidated group, which includes its operations in Türkiye and the United States, first-half sales volume was 4.43 million metric tons, down 3.3% from the comparable 2025 figure.
But the financial decline was considerably larger.
Adjusted EBITDA fell 32%, from $363 million to $245 million, while free cash flow declined 41%, from $283 million to $168 million. (wesoda.com)
The second quarter tells a similar story.
Consolidated sales volume was approximately 2.34 million metric tons, essentially unchanged year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA, however, fell 29%, from $185 million to $131 million.
Free cash flow fell 27%, from $127 million to $93 million. (wesoda.com)
That difference is worth understanding.
A company can continue moving millions of tons of soda ash while earning less from those tons.
WE Soda attributed the pressure to weaker trading conditions, including weaker pricing in parts of Asia and Europe, as well as higher production and transportation costs. (wesoda.com)
WE Soda also said it expects market conditions to remain challenging for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
As a result, the company says capital discipline remains a priority and that it has deferred non-essential growth projects while trading conditions remain difficult. (wesoda.com)
That doesn’t prove every challenge facing WE Soda comes from China.
And we should not claim that it does.
Energy costs, transportation costs, production disruptions and regional pricing all affect company results.
But WE Soda’s results provide additional evidence that the weak global pricing environment is real and is affecting producers operating in Wyoming.
What Does “China Flooding the Market” Actually Mean?
This is where wording matters.
You may see the current situation described as China “flooding” the global soda ash market.
As a general description of rapidly increasing supply, that is understandable.
But we should not automatically describe Chinese soda ash as being illegally “dumped.”
In international trade law, dumping has a specific meaning involving products being exported at less than fair value and normally requires a formal investigation and determination by the appropriate authorities.
The sources reviewed for this article establish something narrower and more defensible:
China significantly expanded soda ash production capacity, including roughly 5 million metric tons per year of new natural soda ash capacity, while global demand has been weak. That combination has contributed to oversupply and downward pressure on international prices.
That conclusion is supported by USGS data, SEC filings and company disclosures. (pubs.usgs.gov)
That is serious enough without overstating it.
Why Something in China Can Matter in Sweetwater County
It may seem strange that a soda ash facility in Inner Mongolia could matter to someone working in southwest Wyoming.
But soda ash is a global commodity.
Producers don’t compete only for customers located near their mines.
They compete for large industrial customers across international markets.
That means Chinese soda ash doesn’t have to physically arrive in Wyoming to compete with Wyoming soda ash.
If additional Chinese production is sold into markets where American, Turkish or other producers are competing, it increases the amount of soda ash available to customers.
When available supply exceeds demand, buyers have more choices.
That puts pressure on sellers.
And one of the ways producers compete is through price.
The USGS data and the financial disclosures we’re seeing suggest that this is already happening. (pubs.usgs.gov)
Does This Mean Wyoming Soda Ash Jobs Are in Danger?
This is probably the most important question for members.
And it is also where we need to be the most responsible.
The public information reviewed for this article does not establish that widespread layoffs are imminent at Wyoming’s existing soda ash operations.
We should not turn evidence of a weak market into a prediction about someone’s job.
There are also reasons Wyoming remains extremely important to the global industry.
The Green River Basin contains the world’s largest known trona deposit.
The United States remains the world’s second-largest soda ash producer.
Wyoming’s natural trona operations have spent decades competing internationally. (pubs.usgs.gov)
Those advantages haven’t disappeared because the market is currently oversupplied.
But that doesn’t mean workers should ignore what is happening.
Weak commodity markets can influence decisions about expansion, capital spending, production levels, hiring, overtime and cost controls.
We can already see examples of companies exercising greater caution.
Pacific Soda wants additional time before beginning construction on a multibillion-dollar project.
WE Soda says it has deferred non-essential growth projects while trading conditions remain challenging.
NRP says the market may require increased demand or reductions in capacity before returning to equilibrium.
Those are not predictions.
They are decisions and statements the companies have already publicly disclosed.
Dry Creek Is an Important Signal, Not a Prediction
That is why the Dry Creek development matters.
Pacific Soda hasn’t announced that the project is dead.
In fact, the federal permitting process continues to move forward.
The BLM issued its right-of-way grant offers in July, and the project remains contingent on additional Wyoming permitting and bonding requirements before construction can proceed. (blm.gov)
What has changed is the timing.
Pacific Soda is asking for another year before its required construction commencement date, and the company’s amendment request specifically identifies the global soda ash downturn and new Chinese natural soda ash production as one of the reasons. (politicalemails.org)
That makes Dry Creek useful as a real-world example of how global commodity conditions can influence decisions here at home.
A project can have trona.
It can have federal approval.
It can have infrastructure plans.
And the underlying resource can still be valuable.
But companies also have to decide whether market conditions justify committing billions of dollars at a particular moment.
Right now, Pacific Soda is asking for more time.
What Would Improve the Market?
The basic problem is supply and demand.
One way the market improves is through stronger demand.
Soda ash is an important ingredient in glass, detergents, chemicals and numerous other industrial products. Growing demand from those industries would help absorb excess production.
The other side is supply.
If market prices remain too low for higher-cost producers to operate profitably, producers may eventually reduce output, delay expansions or remove capacity.
NRP refers to this as capacity rationalization and says increased demand and/or capacity rationalization will be necessary for the market to return to equilibrium. (sec.gov)
What nobody can say with certainty is when that balance will return.
WE Soda currently expects challenging market conditions to continue through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. (wesoda.com)
Forecasts can change, but that gives members an idea of how at least one major producer currently views the near-term market.
What Members Should Take Away From This
There are two extremes we want to avoid.
The first is pretending nothing is happening.
There is clear evidence that the global soda ash market is oversupplied.
USGS says China’s expansion of natural soda ash production contributed to the imbalance.
An SEC filing connected to Sisecam Wyoming says increased Chinese natural soda ash supply and weak glass demand have pushed international prices below production costs for many producers.
WE Soda is reporting weaker pricing and sharply lower EBITDA and free cash flow compared with last year.
And Pacific Soda is asking for more time before beginning construction of Dry Creek while specifically pointing to the downturn in the global soda ash market.
Those are facts.
The other extreme is assuming those facts mean disaster is around the corner.
The evidence doesn’t support that conclusion either.
Wyoming still possesses an extraordinary natural resource.
The Green River Basin contains the world’s largest known trona deposit, and the United States remains one of the world’s dominant soda ash producers. (pubs.usgs.gov)
Markets change.
Demand changes.
Production changes.
Prices change.
And companies adjust.
Our job as workers isn’t to predict the future.
But understanding the environment our industry is operating in matters.
When we see a new mine delayed, international prices weakening, producers tightening capital spending and millions of tons of new capacity entering the market, those developments are worth understanding.
Because eventually decisions made in boardrooms, international markets and production facilities thousands of miles away can influence what happens right here in southwest Wyoming.
That is exactly why we continue looking Across the Soda Ash Industry.
Sources
This article is based entirely on publicly available information.
U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Soda Ash
Used for U.S., Chinese and Turkish production estimates; China’s natural soda ash expansion; global oversupply and pricing conditions; and Green River Basin resource estimates. (pubs.usgs.gov)
U.S. Geological Survey: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
U.S. Bureau of Land Management, Dry Creek Trona Mine
Used for the federal project approval, estimated construction and permanent employment, production estimates, recoverable trona estimates and July 2026 right-of-way milestone. (blm.gov)
BLM: July 2026 Dry Creek Project Update
Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality, Industrial Siting Division, Pacific Soda amendment notice
Used for Pacific Soda’s requested change in construction commencement timing and the reasons identified for that request, including permitting delays and the downturn associated with new Chinese natural soda ash production. (politicalemails.org)
Natural Resource Partners L.P., Q1 and Q2 2026 SEC disclosures
Used for information concerning Sisecam Wyoming, international soda ash pricing, Chinese natural soda ash supply, weak flat-glass demand, financial results and NRP’s assessment of what would be required for the market to return toward equilibrium. (sec.gov)
Natural Resource Partners Q2 2026 SEC filing
WE Soda, Results for the Second Quarter and First Half of 2026, August 26, 2026
Used for sales volumes, Adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, market commentary, pricing conditions, capital discipline and WE Soda’s current outlook. (wesoda.com)
WE Soda: Q2 and H1 2026 Results